Writing


Tuesday Trends (2/23/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. Last September, this ratio peaked and we’ve seen international outperformance since… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) US […]

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The Road Back to Normal

Last month I outlined the data pointing to the beginning of the end of covid-19. Since then, I’m happy to report that some incredible progress has been made… Covid-19 hospitalizations in the US have declined 40 days in a row, down over 57% from their peak on January 6. At 56,159, hospitalizations are now back […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Shopify (2/20/21)

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Shopify an 8 to 80 Brand? Shopify is used by over 1 million businesses in 175 countries around the world. Its user-friendly interface allows anyone to set up an online store. With Shopify POS, merchants can also sell their products in […]

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6-Chart Saturday (2/20/21)

6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. Dr. Copper’s Comeback Copper closed at its highest level in over 9 years, more than doubling from its low last March. The signs of rising inflation can found almost everywhere. Freeport-McMoRan ($FCX), a leading producer of Copper, continues to […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Spotify (2/18/21)

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Spotify an 8 to 80 Brand? With 345 million monthly active users and 155 million subscribers, Spotify is available in 93 countries and used by people of all ages. At 35% market share, Spotify is currently the world’s biggest music streaming […]

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The Worst Year for Bonds in History?

Over the past 40 years, bond yields have largely moved in one direction: down. The 10-Year Treasury went from a yield of 15.84% in 1981 to an all-time closing low of 0.52% in 2020. This has been a blessing for bond investors as prices move inversely to yields. And over the last 2 years, as […]

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Tuesday Trends (2/16/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) US Stocks […]

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5-Chart Friday (2/12/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ 1) No Inflation? The US Federal Reserve says there’s “no inflation,” pointing to metrics like the CPI (consumer price index) which is up only 1.4% in the past year. […]

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Is This 1929 or 1998?

The CAPE Ratio just crossed above 39.1 In layman’s terms, what exactly does that mean? Equity valuations in the US are quite high. How high? Going back to 1871, the only periods in history with a CAPE above 39 are as follows… September 1929 March 1998 to January 2001 Today In September 1929, the CAPE […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Amazon (2/10/21)

A new series covering companies in the 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Amazon an 8 to 80 Brand? Launched as a bookseller in 1995, Amazon has grown to become one of the most influential companies in the world, used by people of all ages in all walks of life. “I’ll just buy it on […]

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Tuesday Trends (2/9/21)

1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks have outperformed Emerging Markets for many years, with the ratio peaking last May. Since then EM has taken a leadership […]

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5-Chart Friday (2/5/21)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Game Over All games eventually come to an end, and this one was no different. The mania that swept the nation last week ended as many had feared, with GameStop down 89% from its high last week. The progression […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Google (2/4/21)

A new series covering companies in the 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Google an 8 to 80 Brand? “Just google it.” A phrase that has become synonymous with finding the answer to any question imaginable. Google is now estimated to control over 90% of the world’s search market, used by people of all ages. […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Apple (2/3/20)

A new series covering companies in the 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Apple an 8 to 80 Brand? Apple now has over 1.5 billion active devices worldwide, including 1 billion iPhone users. Its products are used by people of all ages, and it has become the most widely recognized brand in the world. 2) What […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – January 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review The 8 to 80 Portfolio gained 0.25% (net of fees) in January. The historic squeeze in heavily shorted names (GameStop being the most prominent) featured extreme volatility, which eventually spilled over to the broader markets as hedge funds delevered. The S&P 500 finished down 1.01% (total […]

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7-Chart Saturday (1/30/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. — 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. How the Stock Market Became a Video Game This week was one for […]

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The Day the Stock Market Became a Video Game

Years from now we’ll look back at today as the day the stock market became a video game, replete with a cast of characters and a storyline to compete with the best of them. To be sure, it didn’t happen overnight. It’s been slowly building towards gamification since the start of the pandemic. Stuck at […]

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Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 92 FOMC Meetings… Before 80 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

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Tuesday Trends (1/26/21)

1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming international equities for over 10 years. In early September, this ratio peaked and started trending lower… b) US vs. Emerging Markets ($SPY/$VWO) US Stocks outperformed Emerging Markets for years, with the ratio peaking last May. Since then EM has taken a leadership role hit […]

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5-Chart Friday (1/22/21)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Netflix Numbers Netflix reported earnings this week and surpassed expectations once again. Global subscribers moved above 200 million for the first time, increasing 22% in 2020 (up from 20% in 2019 and 18% in 2018). Netflix original series continue […]

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The Price of Admission

When investors think about risk, 2008 is usually the first thing that comes to mind. And for good reason. It was the worst year that most investors alive today have ever experienced. With dividends included, the S&P 500 lost 37% in 2008, its largest decline since 1931 (during the Great Depression). Since the end of […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Netflix (1/20/21)

A new series covering companies in the 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Netflix an 8 to 80 Brand? Netflix is increasingly becoming a part of every household, and its viewers span multiple generations, from Gen Z to Boomers… It has also become a global brand, with international growth outpacing US growth over the past […]

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When Secular Trends Reverse

The most significant investing trends over the last 10 years can be summarized as follows… Large Caps over Small Caps. US over International. Growth over Value. Tech over Everything. Long Duration over Short Duration (Yields Falling, Curve Flattening). Stocks over Commodities. When Covid-19 first hit the US last February and March, all of these pre-existing […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Nike

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Nike an 8 to 80 Brand? “Just Do It.” Arguably the most recognizable slogan from one of the most recognizable companies. With customers in every generation, from 8 to 80, Nike is the leading global apparel brand in the world. 2) […]

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The Beginning of the End of Covid-19

I’ve been waiting to write this post since the pandemic began a year ago. The ups and downs have been many over that time as the virus has moved in waves throughout the world. Here in the US, the first wave would hit the northeast the hardest. The second wave would hit the south and […]

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