Writing


Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 95 FOMC Meetings… Before 83 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

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6-Chart Saturday (6/12/21)

6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Consumer Prices Surge US consumer prices rose 5% over the last year, the highest increase since 2008. Core prices (excluding food/energy) rose 3.8%, the fastest pace since 1992. The US is not alone in seeing rising prices, though its […]

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The Ultimate Superpower in Investing

Here’s a list of the top 30 stocks in the S&P 500 over the past 30 years… What stands out? The unfathomable returns, a product of time and the magic of compounding. What’s lost in this graphic, however, are the many periods of excruciating pain that anyone invested in these companies would have experienced. When […]

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Demystifying High Yield Bonds

What are high yield bonds? I don’t mean the textbook definition (corporate bonds with a credit rating below BBB), but how they actually behave in terms of risk and return. To explore this, let’s address some common questions surrounding the asset class also known as “junk bonds”… Question #1: Do High Yield Bonds Act More […]

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Tuesday Trends (6/8/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) More than a decade long streak of US equity outperformance peaked last September. Since then US relative strength has gone sideways… b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) Emerging Markets […]

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7-Chart Sunday (6/6/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Comeback The US Unemployment rate moved down to 5.8% in May, its […]

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A Guide to Moving from Cash to Investments

This is a story many of you will be familiar with. You have money to invest that’s been sitting in cash, either from the sale of a business, a recent inheritance, or built-up savings. This is money you don’t expect to need or access for more than 20 years, if ever. You know that cash […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – May 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio declined 0.58% (net of fees) in May. We added to some existing positions during the month on the correction and initiated two new positions. The broad markets sold off in the first half of May with growth names […]

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5-Chart Friday (5/28/21)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The $100 Million Deli? Shares of Hometown International – a New Jersey Deli with a single location – hit a market cap of $113 million earlier this year and are still trading at $94 million today. Its latest financials: […]

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Do Low Interest Rates Justify High Valuations?

You’ve heard the story before: Equity valuations are high… Interest rates are low…. Therefore, high valuations are “justified” by lower interest rates. Why? Some say it’s because stocks are simply the present value of their future cash flows. And lower interest rates (r) in the denominator of that equation should result in a higher present value, and […]

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Tuesday Trends (5/25/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. b) Emerging Markets vs. US ($IEMG/$SPY) Emerging Markets have been […]

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6-Chart Saturday (5/22/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) $3 Gas Gasoline prices in the US are back above $3 per gallon, at […]

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The Golden Age for Bonds Is Over

For 40 years (1980-2019), bond investors in the US earned a rate of return that outpaced inflation, and often by a wide margin: In the 1980s, 10-year yields moved from 10.4% down to 7.8%, and bond investors earned an annualized real return of 6.6%. In the 1990s, 10-year yields moved from 7.8% down to 6.3%, […]

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7-Chart Sunday (5/16/21)

7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Now Hiring There have never been more Job Openings in the US than there are today: 8.1 million. With 9.8 million people still unemployed, there is a big debate going on over whether the additional Federal unemployment benefits of […]

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Everything is Transitory

Core inflation in the US has moved up to 3%, its highest level in 25 years (note: core inflation excludes food/energy). At 4.2%, overall inflation is running at its highest level since 2008. The prices of imports and exports are surging… The price of Copper, one of the most important industrial metals, is now at […]

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Tuesday Trends (5/11/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is said […]

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What Can You Do About High Valuations?

Valuations in the US are high, exceeding all prior periods in history with the exception of the dot-com bubble (March 1998 to December 2000).1 The long-run implications of higher valuations? Lower future returns and higher volatility/drawdowns, on average (see recent post). The natural question that follows: what, if anything, can an investor do about this? […]

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5-Chart Friday (5/7/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Crocs Comeback One of the great comebacks in stock market history: Crocs is back […]

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The Great Reopening of America

Over the past few months, we’ve made considerable progress in defeating covid-19… 45% of Americans (148 million people) are now vaccinated with at least 1 dose. In the most vulnerable age group (65+, which has seen >80% of covid-19 deaths), we’re at 85%. If we add in those who have been infected with covid-19 (but […]

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Stocks, Bonds, and Higher Inflation

US inflation expectations continue to rise, now at their highest levels since 2008. If higher inflation is coming (see here for some signs), many investors are wondering how that will impact their portfolio. Let’s take a look at how stocks and bonds have performed historically under various levels of inflation… If we segment calendar year […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – April 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio gained 2.69% (net of fees) in April. After a sharp pullback in March, there was a recovery in higher growth and Tech names in April, but on a relative basis they’re still exhibiting underperformance this year after a […]

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7-Chart Sunday (5/2/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our newsletter. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Stimulus Effect US personal incomes were 29% higher in March 2021 than a year ago, the highest rate of increase ever recorded. 2) The V in Earnings […]

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Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 94 FOMC Meetings… Before 82 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

Read more

5-Chart Friday (4/23/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Housing Boom 2.0 The US Housing Boom continues with New Home Sales surging to […]

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Tuesday Trends (4/20/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… — The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is […]

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