Writing


Everything is Transitory

Core inflation in the US has moved up to 3%, its highest level in 25 years (note: core inflation excludes food/energy). At 4.2%, overall inflation is running at its highest level since 2008. The prices of imports and exports are surging… The price of Copper, one of the most important industrial metals, is now at […]

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Tuesday Trends (5/11/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is said […]

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What Can You Do About High Valuations?

Valuations in the US are high, exceeding all prior periods in history with the exception of the dot-com bubble (March 1998 to December 2000).1 The long-run implications of higher valuations? Lower future returns and higher volatility/drawdowns, on average (see recent post). The natural question that follows: what, if anything, can an investor do about this? […]

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5-Chart Friday (5/7/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Crocs Comeback One of the great comebacks in stock market history: Crocs is back […]

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The Great Reopening of America

Over the past few months, we’ve made considerable progress in defeating covid-19… 45% of Americans (148 million people) are now vaccinated with at least 1 dose. In the most vulnerable age group (65+, which has seen >80% of covid-19 deaths), we’re at 85%. If we add in those who have been infected with covid-19 (but […]

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Stocks, Bonds, and Higher Inflation

US inflation expectations continue to rise, now at their highest levels since 2008. If higher inflation is coming (see here for some signs), many investors are wondering how that will impact their portfolio. Let’s take a look at how stocks and bonds have performed historically under various levels of inflation… If we segment calendar year […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – April 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio gained 2.69% (net of fees) in April. After a sharp pullback in March, there was a recovery in higher growth and Tech names in April, but on a relative basis they’re still exhibiting underperformance this year after a […]

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7-Chart Sunday (5/2/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our newsletter. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Stimulus Effect US personal incomes were 29% higher in March 2021 than a year ago, the highest rate of increase ever recorded. 2) The V in Earnings […]

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Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 94 FOMC Meetings… Before 82 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

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5-Chart Friday (4/23/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Housing Boom 2.0 The US Housing Boom continues with New Home Sales surging to […]

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Tuesday Trends (4/20/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… — The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is […]

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When a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 96.8% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average. This is the highest percentage ever. When this many stocks are participating in a rising market, many consider it a sign of strength (“good breadth”) and a bullish indicator for […]

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5-Chart Friday (4/16/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our newsletter. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Rising Tide… …lifts all boats. 96.4% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average, the highest % ever. 2) The Free Money Effect […]

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The Definition of Inflation

There is one definition of inflation that seems most applicable to today… “Too much money chasing too few goods.” We are seeing the impact of trillions of dollars in stimulus money chasing a limited supply of goods almost everywhere you look… Financial Asset Price Inflation -Stock prices are at record highs, up 50-80% in the […]

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The Most Important Rule in Investing

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” – Warren Buffett With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the most important rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the […]

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5-Chart Friday (4/9/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) All is Calm Again The $VIX has finally moved back to pre-pandemic levels, down […]

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What Does a Manufacturing Boom Mean for Stocks?

US manufacturing is booming. In a report released last week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 64.7, its highest level since 1983. Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because higher manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This seems logical but does the data support such a conclusion? And […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – March 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio declined 2.36% (net of fees) in March. There was a sizeable correction that began in mid-February in high growth and momentum names (see here for a more detailed post on this). A number of the 8 to 80 […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Nike (4/5/21)

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Nike an 8 to 80 Brand? “Just Do It.” Arguably the most recognizable slogan from one of the most recognizable companies. With customers in every generation, from 8 to 80, Nike is the leading global apparel brand in the world. 2) […]

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6-Chart Saturday (4/3/21)

Click Here for a replay of the Webinar I did with YCharts this week. We discussed 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Recovery Continues As the US reopening continues, jobs are coming back. […]

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Tuesday Trends (3/30/21)

Register here for our Webinar on April 1st discussing 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing (replay will be sent to those that register). Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks […]

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The 2 Most Powerful Forces in Markets

Momentum and Mean Reversion. The two most powerful forces in markets. Momentum dictates that what has done the best in the past will continue to do the best and Mean Reversion just the opposite – where what is done the worst will eventually do the best, reverting back to its mean. That both can be […]

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5-Chart Friday (3/26/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ Register here for our Webinar on April 1st discussing 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing (replay will be sent to those that register). 5 […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Zoom (3/22/21)

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Zoom an 8 to 80 Brand? “Let’s Zoom.” 2020 was the year that Zoom became a verb, providing an easy-to-use service that became an essential part of everyday life. Last April, daily Zoom meeting participants surged to 300 million, up from […]

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Gold’s Worst Enemy

Gold has been having a tough time of late, down 20% from its high last August. With government debt going through the roof and the Fed maintaining the easiest monetary policy in history, many investors are confused by the move lower. This was supposed to be the perfect environment for Gold. So why is it […]

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