Writing


9-Chart Monday (8/15/22)

Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most interesting charts and themes in markets. Sign up here. 9 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Betting the Under For the first time since early 2021, if you bet […]

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How to Think About Investing During a Recession

Is the US economy in a recession? Everyone seems to be asking that question. Why? Likely because we just learned that real GDP contracted for the second straight quarter. And the last 10 times we’ve seen consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, the US was indeed in a recession. With data going back to 1947, […]

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7-Chart Monday (8/8/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 7 charts and themes from the past week that […]

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9-Chart Friday (7/29/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts and themes from the past week that […]

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Put These Charts on Your Wall … 2022 Edition

Notes: Every week I send a letter to tens of thousands of investors covering the most important charts and themes in markets (Subscribe here). Click here for a video on this post. Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and can’t possibly go any lower… […]

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10-Chart Monday (7/18/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hello 9% The US Inflation Rate rose to 9.1% in June, its highest level since […]

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The Upside of Downside

Note: for my video on this post, click here. The first half of 2022 was one of the most painful periods in history for investors… The S&P 500 fell 20%, on pace for its largest annual decline since 2008 and 3rd largest ever (after 1931 and 2008). The 10-Year Treasury bond fell 11.5%, on pace […]

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10-Chart Saturday (7/9/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 10 charts and themes from the past week that […]

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7-Chart Thursday (6/30/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. 7 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Unsustainable Levels The unaffordability of the US housing market has risen to unsustainable levels. […]

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10-Chart Wednesday (6/22/22)

Notes: -My latest Week in Charts Video on YouTube. -My recent Webinar with YCharts. -My Conversation with Anthony Pompliano. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. __ 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting […]

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The Greatest Paradox in Markets

Stocks go up and stocks go down. Most of the time there’s nothing interesting or exceptional to say about it. But from time to time, notable extremes occur, both on the downside and the upside. The driving force? The most powerful human emotions: fear and greed. In the past few years we’ve seen both sides… […]

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9-Chart Monday (6/13/22)

Notes: –Register here for my webinar with YCharts on June 14 (2pm EST). We’ll be discussing the history of bear markets, the lowest consumer sentiment in history, the only path to long-term prosperity, and much more. -I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. […]

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Facing the Single Biggest Fear in Retirement

After years of hard work, you’re ready to retire. You’ve been a disciplined saver and investor, building up a sizable nest egg that should allow you to maintain your current lifestyle throughout your golden years. Your biggest fear? A devastating bear market that would significantly reduce the value of your portfolio and put you at […]

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7-Chart Monday (6/6/22)

Note: Register here for my next markets webinar with YCharts on June 14 (2pm EST). Will be discussing the history of bear markets, the odds of a recession, whether the inflation rate has peaked, and much more. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive a free trial and 20% off your subscription when […]

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10-Chart Thursday (5/26/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. __ This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 10 charts and themes from the past week that tell an interesting […]

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Every Bear Market is Different

It’s official: the Bear Market of 2022. The S&P 500 has now fallen 20.9% from its high in early January, the largest decline for the index since March 2020. The question everyone’s asking: what happens next? To answer that, we often look back at history, attempting to find parallels with the past. But even a […]

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The Stock Market is a Voting Machine

“Hence the prices of common stocks are not carefully thought out computations, but the resultants of a welter of human reactions. The stock market is a voting machine rather than a weighing machine. It responds to factual data not directly, but only as they affect the decisions of buyers and sellers.” – Graham and Dodd, Security Analysis […]

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10-Chart Tuesday (5/17/22)

Note: I have a new channel on YouTube where I share my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. 10 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Has the Inflation Rate Peaked? I asked this question on Twitter this week with 55% […]

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The Biggest Mistake an Investor Can Make

The market has gone up over time. But not all the time; far from it. And therein lies the challenge, for you can’t have one (long-term gain) without the other (short-term pain). Since 1990, the S&P 500 has returned an impressive 10% per year. And it’s done so despite two 50+% bear markets and being […]

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9-Chart Wednesday (5/11/22)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Two Steps Forward, One Step Back That’s the path all investors must take, as there is no upside without intermittent […]

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9-Chart Wednesday (5/4/22)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Charlie Bilello to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. — 9 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Hard Times The S&P 500 declined 13.3% in the first 82 trading days of 2022, the worst start to a […]

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I Don’t Know

I Don’t Know Three words that are rarely heard in the investment business and at the same time the most important to long-term success. Why? Because the future is unknown and having the humility to admit that is very hard for us to do. We’re wired instead with overconfidence – we tend to overestimate our […]

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7-Chart Saturday (4/23/22)

Notes: –Click Here for a replay of my recent webinar with YCharts covering Fed Policy, Equity Valuations, the Worst Year for Bonds in History, and much more. -I have a new video channel on YouTube where I’ll be sharing my latest thoughts on markets and investing. You can view the most recent video here. -Join thousands of other investors […]

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When Cash Is King

Cash is king. At least for the moment. In the first quarter of 2022, short-term Treasury bills finished marginally higher (+0.03%) while both the 10-Year Treasury bond (-6.64%) and the S&P 500 (-4.95%) declined. The greatest fear among many investors is that this trend will continue. Is this a rational fear? How often has cash […]

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Is a Low Unemployment Rate Bullish for Stocks?

The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 3.6% in March, its lowest level since the start of the pandemic and well below the historical average of 5.75%. If you asked most people, they would probably say this is a bullish sign, where a strong economy is good news for the stock market. But is this […]

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