Writing


No Country for Old Yields

Over the past 40 years, there has been a one-way trend in US Treasury Bond Yields: down. US 10-Year Treasury Yield…September 1980: 11.6%September 1985: 10.4%September 1990: 8.9%September 1995: 6.2%September 2000: 5.9%September 2005: 4.3%September 2010: 2.8%September 2015: 2.2%September 2020: 0.7% — Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 18, 2020 If you’re a bond investor, that has been a […]

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5-Chart Friday (9/18/20)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Snowflakes and Bubbles Snowflake ($SNOW) went public this week as the largest software IPO ever. On its first day of trading it reached a market cap high of over $88 billion, trading at an astounding 219x sales. In a […]

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Great Expectations

“Ask no questions, and you’ll be told no lies.” – Charles Dickens, Great Expectations What returns are you expecting from equities going forward? “At least 20% a year.” That was a conversation I had last week with an investor. It gives you an idea where we are in terms of sentiment. How did they arrive […]

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Snowflakes and Bubbles

Snowflake went public today. Who? Snowflake, a cloud-based data storage and analytics company. You had me at “cloud.” What’s the ticker? $SNOW. Awesome, catchy and easy to remember. Are they profitable? No. They lost $349 million in the fiscal year ending in January and $171 million in the first six months of this year. Even […]

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Investing is Easy?

Peloton reported earnings this week and in after hours trading its market cap moved above $26 billion, nearly as high as Ford. A year ago Peloton went public with a market cap of $7 billion. After posting this chart on twitter, the responses can be summarized as follows: “Ad hominen insult. Ford is going to […]

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5-Chart Friday (9/11/20)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) End of a Trend? The Nasdaq 100 ETF closed below its 50-day moving average today for the first time since April, ending one of the longest runs ever. It is now down over 10% from its recent high, marking […]

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5-Chart Friday (9/4/20)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) From Fear to Greed From extreme Fear in March to extreme Greed today. The equity put/call ratio (a ratio of bearish option bets to bullish option bets) has never been lower… We haven’t seen a mania like this since […]

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5-Chart Friday (8/21/20)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) How Do You Like Them Apples? Apple is now a $2 trillion company, adding $1 trillion to its market cap over the last year. $AAPL How big is $2 trillion? Who will be the first to $3 trillion? The […]

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5-Chart Friday (8/14/20)

5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Rising … Inflation? Deflation has been the buzzword nearly all year, particularly from the Fed in justifying their extraordinary easing measures. So it might come as a surprise to see US inflation expectations rising in a vertical fashion. At […]

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COVID-19: Turning the Corner on the Second Wave

July was a tough month for COVID-19 in the US, with both infections and deaths moving significantly higher. But there are some positive signs that indicate we may be turning the corner. Let’s take a closer look… 1) New Cases Trending Lower New cases in the US peaked on July 23 at a 7-day average […]

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