Writing


7-Chart Sunday (11/28/21)

If you missed our November markets webinar, click here for the replay. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Volatility Returns The […]

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How to Avoid Another Lost Decade

US equity valuations are high. How high? The CAPE Ratio on the S&P 500 just crossed above 40. When was last time we saw a CAPE ratio above 40? September 2000. What happened after that? The “lost decade” for investors. The S&P 500 declined 15% over the next 10 years, with two significant drawdowns in […]

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The Stock Picker’s Bear Market

Bezos. Gates. Buffett. Zuckerberg. Musk. A list of the wealthiest Americans all have one thing in common: concentrated positions in a single company’s stock that they founded. It’s tempting to believe that is the model you should follow in your own investment portfolio, but for most, that would be a mistake. Why? Because the odds […]

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7-Chart Sunday (11/21/21)

Webinar Replay: If you missed this week’s markets webinar, click here for the replay. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) […]

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Investors Are Behaving as if the Future Has Already Happened

Rivian ($RIVN) went public last week in one of the largest IPOs ever, raising $12 billion and ending its first day of trading at a market cap of $87 billion. Only a week later, its market cap has surged to $149 billion, higher than both General Motors ($GM) and Ford ($F). Why is that surprising? […]

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Tuesday Trends (11/16/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength is at new highs. The S&P 500 has gained 27% in 2021 versus 10% for the world ex US ($ACWX). b) US vs. Emerging Markets […]

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The Stock Market Is Not the Economy

US economic growth contracted 2.3% in 2020, the worst year for the economy since 2008. Did that hurt the stock market? Not at all. The S&P 500 gained 18%, well above its historical average return of 10%. 2020 wasn’t the first time we’ve seen a higher stock market in spite of an economic downturn. The […]

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7-Chart Sunday (11/14/21)

Webinar Sign Up: –Click here to register for our November Charts Webinar (11/18 @ 2pm EST) This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and […]

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The Inflationary Spiral

What do Amazon, Walmart, Costco, Bank of America, McDonald’s, and Starbucks have in common? They’re all among the largest US employers and they’ve all raised wages in the last year. Overall, average hourly earnings in the U.S. are up 4.9% in the last 12 months and 9.6% over the last 24 months. This is significantly […]

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How to Invest Without Knowing the Future

It’s that time of year again. Endless predictions and price targets about where the markets are headed in 2022: -The S&P 500 is going to ___. -The 10-year treasury yield is going to ___. -Crude Oil is going to ___. -Bitcoin is going to ___. There’s a huge audience for this type of content, but […]

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7-Chart Sunday (11/7/21)

Notes: –Click here for a replay of our October Webinar –Click here to register for our November Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story […]

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Tuesday Trends (11/2/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength is at new highs. The S&P 500 has gained 25% in 2021 versus 9% for the world ex US ($ACWX). b) US vs. Emerging Markets […]

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Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. All that has changed. Since June 2009, there have been 98 FOMC Meetings… Before 86 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – October 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio gained 7.83% (net of fees) in October. The mild correction that began in early September proved to be yet another opportunity to buy the dip, with the broad markets racing back to new all-time highs. The S&P 500 has […]

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7-Chart Sunday (10/31/21)

Note: Click here for a replay of this week’s webinar on Markets and Investing. — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… […]

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7-Chart Sunday (10/24/21)

Click here to register for our October Charts Webinar (10/26) — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) New Bitcoin Highs […]

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Is the Market Always Right?

“The Market is always right.” One of the most popular sayings which can also be one of the most dangerous. Why? Because “the market” can be very wrong at the worst possible time. A few examples… 1) Silver in 1980 The price of Silver went up over 10x in the year leading up to its […]

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The Great Normalization

During the covid crash last year we saw central banks around the world ease policy like never before. Rate cuts, asset purchases, and more – everything was on the table. By the end of 2020, this is what a chart of central bank interest rates and inflation looked like… And this what it looks like […]

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7-Chart Sunday (10/17/21)

Click here to register for our October Webinar (10/26) — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Transitory Persistent Inflation The […]

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Reaching for Returns

7.5%. That’s been the annual return assumption of pension funds for decades. What mix of assets is required to generate such a return? The answer to that question has changed dramatically over the past 40 years. Let’s take a closer look… January 1981 In 1981, short-term Treasury bills were yielding over 15%, near their highest […]

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Why 0% Rates Make 0 Sense

Pretend for a moment that you’ve been stranded on a desert island and have no idea where Fed policy stands. After being recued, you’re given the following the information… US Real GDP is at its highest level ever, up 12% over the last year and on pace for its highest annual growth rate since the […]

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7-Chart Sunday (10/10/21)

Click Here for the Replay of September’s Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Back to Work The Unemployment […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – September 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio declined 5.06% (net of fees) in September. In last month’s update, I wrote the following: “The equity markets in the U.S. have been unusually calm thus far in 2021, with the S&P 500 already posting 54 all-time highs and […]

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Tuesday Trends (10/5/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. The S&P 500 has gained 17% in 2021 versus 5% for the […]

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6-Chart Monday (10/4/21)

Click Here for a Replay of Last Week’s Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) 0% Rates Make 0 […]

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