Writing


Tuesday Trends (4/20/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… — The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks have been outperforming over the last 3 months after a relative decline from last September through mid-January. The new narrative: trillions in new economic stimulus is […]

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When a Rising Tide Lifts All Boats

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 96.8% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average. This is the highest percentage ever. When this many stocks are participating in a rising market, many consider it a sign of strength (“good breadth”) and a bullish indicator for […]

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5-Chart Friday (4/16/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our newsletter. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) A Rising Tide… …lifts all boats. 96.4% of stocks in the S&P 500 are above their 200-day moving average, the highest % ever. 2) The Free Money Effect […]

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The Definition of Inflation

There is one definition of inflation that seems most applicable to today… “Too much money chasing too few goods.” We are seeing the impact of trillions of dollars in stimulus money chasing a limited supply of goods almost everywhere you look… Financial Asset Price Inflation -Stock prices are at record highs, up 50-80% in the […]

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The Most Important Rule in Investing

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.” – Warren Buffett With all due respect to Warren Buffett, the most important rule in investing is not anything close to “never lose money.” In fact, the entire notion is absurd. Anyone who has ever invested in the history of the […]

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5-Chart Friday (4/9/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) All is Calm Again The $VIX has finally moved back to pre-pandemic levels, down […]

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What Does a Manufacturing Boom Mean for Stocks?

US manufacturing is booming. In a report released last week, the ISM Manufacturing Index moved up to 64.7, its highest level since 1983. Many are saying that’s great news for the stock market because higher manufacturing activity is evidence of a stronger economy. This seems logical but does the data support such a conclusion? And […]

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8 to 80 Monthly Update – March 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio declined 2.36% (net of fees) in March. There was a sizeable correction that began in mid-February in high growth and momentum names (see here for a more detailed post on this). A number of the 8 to 80 […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Nike (4/5/21)

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Nike an 8 to 80 Brand? “Just Do It.” Arguably the most recognizable slogan from one of the most recognizable companies. With customers in every generation, from 8 to 80, Nike is the leading global apparel brand in the world. 2) […]

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6-Chart Saturday (4/3/21)

Click Here for a replay of the Webinar I did with YCharts this week. We discussed 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Recovery Continues As the US reopening continues, jobs are coming back. […]

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Tuesday Trends (3/30/21)

Register here for our Webinar on April 1st discussing 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing (replay will be sent to those that register). Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks […]

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The 2 Most Powerful Forces in Markets

Momentum and Mean Reversion. The two most powerful forces in markets. Momentum dictates that what has done the best in the past will continue to do the best and Mean Reversion just the opposite – where what is done the worst will eventually do the best, reverting back to its mean. That both can be […]

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5-Chart Friday (3/26/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ Register here for our Webinar on April 1st discussing 6 Long-Term Market Trends that have been showing signs of reversing (replay will be sent to those that register). 5 […]

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8 to 80 Spotlight: Zoom (3/22/21)

A new series covering companies in the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… 1) Why is Zoom an 8 to 80 Brand? “Let’s Zoom.” 2020 was the year that Zoom became a verb, providing an easy-to-use service that became an essential part of everyday life. Last April, daily Zoom meeting participants surged to 300 million, up from […]

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Gold’s Worst Enemy

Gold has been having a tough time of late, down 20% from its high last August. With government debt going through the roof and the Fed maintaining the easiest monetary policy in history, many investors are confused by the move lower. This was supposed to be the perfect environment for Gold. So why is it […]

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5-Chart Friday (3/19/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Higher Growth + Higher Inflation = Easy Money? The Federal Reserve updated their projections at this week’s FOMC meeting with a substantial move higher in anticipated real […]

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When All News is Good News

What a difference a year makes. On March 16, 2020, I wrote the following in a post entitled “When All News is Bad News”… “The Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the “fear index,” ended today at 82.69. Since its inception in 1990 it has never had a higher close… When all news is bad […]

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Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 93 FOMC Meetings… Before 81 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

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The Great Reversal in Secular Trends

Back in January, I outlined 6 secular investing trends that were showing signs of a major reversal… Long Duration over Short Duration and Flattening Yield Curve. Large Caps over Small Caps. Stocks over Commodities. US over International. Growth over Value. Tech over Everything. Since then, the reversal of these major trends have continued, and in […]

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5-Chart Friday (3/12/21)

This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. __ 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Stimmy, Stimmy, Stimmy The 3rd round of stimulus checks are on their way, […]

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What’s the Best Hedge Against Inflation?

If market participants are correct, higher prices are coming, with inflation expectations surging to their highest levels in over 12 years.1 When most investors read the word “inflation” they immediately think of Gold, as conventional wisdom states that there is no better hedge against rising prices. Is this true? Let’s take a look… Since 1975 […]

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5-Chart Friday (3/5/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1. The Price of Admission The S&P 500 fell 5.7% from its high in mid February to its low this week, its first correction since last September. This […]

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A Billion a Day

Years from now, we’ll look back and say it was obvious. That the signs of a historic mania were clear as day, with a billion a day in SPACs being the most prominent. You read that correctly: $1 billion per day has been raised in the SPAC IPO market this year, an astounding figure. At […]

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28 Trillion and Counting

US National Debt has crossed above $28 trillion for the first time, increasing $4.6 trillion over the last year. As a percentage of economic output (GDP), our national debt has never been higher, steadily increasing over the past 40 years from 31% in 1980 to 130% today… Why is the ratio going up? Simply put: […]

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Tuesday Trends (3/2/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US stocks had been outperforming international equities for over 10 years before hitting a relative peak last September. Since then, we’ve seen international outperformance but the ratio has gone […]

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