All posts by Charlie Bilello


The Great Normalization

During the covid crash last year we saw central banks around the world ease policy like never before. Rate cuts, asset purchases, and more – everything was on the table. By the end of 2020, this is what a chart of central bank interest rates and inflation looked like… And this what it looks like […]

Read more

7-Chart Sunday (10/17/21)

Click here to register for our October Webinar (10/26) — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Transitory Persistent Inflation The […]

Read more

Reaching for Returns

7.5%. That’s been the annual return assumption of pension funds for decades. What mix of assets is required to generate such a return? The answer to that question has changed dramatically over the past 40 years. Let’s take a closer look… January 1981 In 1981, short-term Treasury bills were yielding over 15%, near their highest […]

Read more

Why 0% Rates Make 0 Sense

Pretend for a moment that you’ve been stranded on a desert island and have no idea where Fed policy stands. After being recued, you’re given the following the information… US Real GDP is at its highest level ever, up 12% over the last year and on pace for its highest annual growth rate since the […]

Read more

7-Chart Sunday (10/10/21)

Click Here for the Replay of September’s Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Back to Work The Unemployment […]

Read more

8 to 80 Monthly Update – September 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio declined 5.06% (net of fees) in September. In last month’s update, I wrote the following: “The equity markets in the U.S. have been unusually calm thus far in 2021, with the S&P 500 already posting 54 all-time highs and […]

Read more

Tuesday Trends (10/5/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. The S&P 500 has gained 17% in 2021 versus 5% for the […]

Read more

6-Chart Monday (10/4/21)

Click Here for a Replay of Last Week’s Webinar — This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) 0% Rates Make 0 […]

Read more

7-Chart Sunday (9/26/21)

Sign up for our September Charts webinar (on 9/29) here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Ever Heard of Evergrande? Before this […]

Read more

Tuesday Trends (9/21/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. In the past month we’ve seen a slight pullback as international stocks […]

Read more

Tomorrow’s News Today

There was a time long, long ago when Federal Reserve meeting announcements would come a surprise to market participants. They might cut rates. They might hike rates. You just didn’t know. That has all changed. Since June 2009, there have been 97 FOMC Meetings… Before 85 of those meetings, the market was pricing no change […]

Read more

How the “Buy the Dip” Generation Came to Be

“Buy the dip.” This has been the mantra for an entire generation of investors. Why? Because we are creatures of habit, and during the last 12 years the best habit you could possibly have had as an investor was to stop worrying and simply “buy the dip.” The fact that dips were often followed in […]

Read more

5-Chart Friday (9/17/21)

Sign up for next webinar (on 9/29) here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 5 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Inflation Everywhere You Look The transitory […]

Read more

Expectations Are Everything

This is a story about expectations. But first, I want you to read about Company A and Company B… Company A had revenues of $66.81 billion over the last year and net income of $7.14 billion. It was founded in 1912 and has 114,000 employees. Company B had revenues of $851 million over the last […]

Read more

How to Win Any Argument Over Investments

By changing the start and end date, you can win just about any argument over what’s the best investment. Even the age-old battle between Gold bugs and stock market bulls? Yes, even that one. Here’s a guide to winning the argument, first in favor of Gold and then in favor of Stocks… If you’re a […]

Read more

A Time for Prudence?

Investing is never easy, but there’s no denying that the last 10 years in U.S. equities have been a far smoother ride than most of history. How do we define “smoother”? In layman’s terms: higher returns with lower risk. In technical terms, we can look at things like the Sharpe Ratio, which measures risk-adjusted performance. […]

Read more

7-Chart Sunday (9/12/21)

Sign up for our weekly newsletter here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 7 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) Solana Surge Solana’s market cap hit $63 billion […]

Read more

Put These Charts on Your Wall … 2021 Edition

Put these charts on your wall for reference the next time you think… All-time highs are a reason to sell… It’s “oversold” or “at support” and has to go back up… It’s “overbought” or “at resistance” and can‘t possibly go higher… Investors are rational and would never buy stock in the wrong company because of a tweet… A meme can’t lead […]

Read more

The Two Types of Investors

There are two types of investors: Pundits and Professionals… <> The Pundit thinks they know everything. The Professional knows that learning is infinite. <> The Pundit makes subjective predictions. The Professional makes objective assessments. <> The Pundit seeks self-promotion. The Professional seeks self-improvement. <> The Pundit exudes hubris. The Professional exudes humility. <> The Pundit […]

Read more

Tuesday Trends (9/7/21)

Don’t miss our latest insights. Sign up here for our free newsletter… The most important trends in markets and investing… 1) Equities a) US vs. World ($SPY/$ACWX) US equity relative strength hit a new high in August, continuing the decade-long run of US outperformance. In the past few weeks we’ve seen a slight pullback as international […]

Read more

8 to 80 Monthly Update – August 2021

A monthly update of the Compound 8 to 80 Portfolio… Performance Review and Market Environment The 8 to 80 Portfolio gained 0.59% (net of fees) in August. The equity markets in the U.S. have been unusually calm thus far in 2021, with the S&P 500 already posting 54 all-time highs and doing so without a pullback greater than 5% […]

Read more

6-Chart Saturday (9/4/21)

Sign up for our weekly newsletter here. This week’s post is sponsored by YCharts. Mention Compound to receive 20% off your subscription when you initially sign up for the service. Enabling smarter investment decisions & better client communications. 6 charts from the past week that tell an interesting story in markets and investing… 1) The Jobs Recovery Continues The US Unemployment […]

Read more

Where Greatness Lies

Investors today are experiencing one of the calmest markets in history: The S&P 500 has posted a positive return in each of the last 7 months (February – August), and has done so with bond-like volatility (5.2% vs. 5.2% historical average for the Bloomberg Barclays Aggregate). This is lower than over 98% of historical periods […]

Read more

Not All Risk is Rewarded

“Higher risk, higher reward.” This is one of the most repeated maxims in investing, and the basis of Modern Portfolio Theory. It’s also intuitive: riskier investments should be compensated with a higher return. But what should happen and what actually happens is not always one in the same… It’s May 2006 and Gold is all […]

Read more