COVID-19: Turning the Corner on the Second Wave

By Charlie Bilello

08 Aug 2020


July was a tough month for COVID-19 in the US, with both infections and deaths moving significantly higher.

But there are some positive signs that indicate we may be turning the corner. Let’s take a closer look…

1) New Cases Trending Lower

New cases in the US peaked on July 23 at a 7-day average of 66,670 and have since moved down to 54,008 per day.

2) % Positive Trending Lower

The percentage of positive COVID-19 tests peaked on July 12 at 9% (7-day average) and has since moved down to 7.5%.

3) Hospitalizations Trending Lower

US COVID-19 Hospitalizations hit a new high of 59,715 on July 24 and have since moved down to 51,325.

Created in YCharts

4) Deaths Leveling Out

US COVID-19 deaths moved up from a low of 480 per day on July 6 to a recent high of 1,057 per day on August 4.

Deaths are a lagging indicator, as new cases lead hospitalizations, and hospitalizations lead deaths. If cases and hospitalizations continue to trend lower, we should see the same pattern with deaths in the coming weeks.

We’re already seeing signs of this, with new deaths slowing to an increase of 2.9% over the past week.

While the virus is not going away, we’re learning more each day on how best to combat it as we await a potential vaccine (7 are currently in phase 3 trials with a few showing promising results).

I’m hopeful the positive trends above will continue as we approach fall and the reopening of schools. We all play a small role in whether it does. With some discipline (washing hands, wearing masks, avoiding large gatherings), compassion (making sure we protect those most vulnerable), and continued sacrifice, we’ll get through this.

Related Posts: 

Breaking Down the Second Wave

COVID-19 Q&A

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About the author

Charlie Bilello

Charlie is the founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors.

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